220 - Russia cuts 500,000 BPD | Ademiju Allen with Rystad Energy

Russia to cut oil output by 500,000 bpd in March

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-cut-oil-output-by-500000-bpd-march-2023-02-10/

-"As of today, we are fully selling the entire volume of oil produced, however, as stated earlier, we will not sell oil to those who directly or indirectly adhere to the principles of the 'price cap'," Novak said

- Are they cutting to see who will pay above $60 and who will adhere to price cap?

- Oil isn't up that much

- Could be also to push customers to use all Russian services

Oil prices rise over 2% on Russian plan to cut output

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-dips-heads-weekly-gain-015302054.html

- Goldman cut its oil forecast by $6/barrel

- Waiting for Chinese demand to surge in order for crude oil to "break out"

- What about rising tensions with China? Shouldn't that increase oil prices?

Natural Gas: Fasten Your Seat Belts

https://www.wsj.com/articles/natural-gas-fasten-your-seat-belts-5c0fcdf4

- volatility is much more extreme in 2022 than in any other year

- How much of that is due to Russia and the fact that we are WAY more dependent on natural gas than ever before?

- We should be concerned about 2023/2024 winter

Special Guest Ademiju Allen from Rystad to discuss the North American natural gas production and infrastructure.

- Gas markets analysts on North American gas team with Rystad

- Gas constraints in North AMerica. Appalachia largest resource in America, maybe in world? But not enough takeaway capacity. Atlantic Coast Pipeline cancellation was supposed to help but it was cancelled. Mountain Valley Pipeline also a problem

- If gas can't get to where it needs to go, you will have a problem if temperatures are lower than average

- Fortunately for weather in Northeast, seasonally mild winter and haven't seen structural impacts to gas consumption in region 

- Production has remained flat

- Is next winter a concern? Storage is seasonally high, comparatively. Broken down regionally it's higher in south-central.

- Lack of production wasn't just lack of takeaway but also supply chain issues.

- May through September is the period we have to go through and see how much gas is going into storage to see how prices will react to milder or aggressive temperatures. Really hard to say what will happen next winter.

- Natural gas prices on a basis. Situation in California is the opposite - they were elevated this winter for different reasons than northeast. 

- Cold snap over Christmas: utilities/independent system operators always SAY they are well prepared but every storm/event is different. PGM experienced issues with how freezing temps impacted equipment.

- The Permian has two things going for it that Appalachia doesn't: proximity to export facilities and that it is mostly associated gas.

- Minimal growth coming out of Appalachia year on year basis. Permian and Haynesville has potential for huge growth.

- Permian will grow at pace that oil production economics and takeaway capacity allows them to grow.

- Permian is producing record levels of gas, but takeaway for gas needs to be able to keep up and right now it's tight.

- Is lack of takeaway capacity for gas impacting oil production growth due to regulations that prevent flaring? No evidence for that. Flaring mandates are being following by public operators but not private operators.

- Private operators just pay the penalty on flaring.

For more visit

https://www.rystadenergy.com/

North America Natural Gas Solution

Global Gas & LNG Solution

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com