Convertible bonds (CBs) can offer equity-like returns with downside protection thanks to the coupon and the ability to redeem most CBs at par. Thus far in 2024, CB issuance has been active, well ahead of levels seen the last few years. Michael discusses the reasons for such an active issuance year, including that Pandemic debt issuance, which was at record levels in the convert space, is starting to come due and converts offer issuers the ability to lower their coupons at a time of relatively high rates. We do have a constructive view on converts for 2024 but we're not overly bullish. That's because converts tend to be issued by smaller companies, and delayed rate cuts present a risk to those stocks. Also, continued appetite for mega cap tech could be a challenge for small caps. On an absolute basis, converts perform best when equities and GDP growth are strong, and relative to equities, they act best later in cycles. Institutional investors can purchase CBs outright but retail investors can gain exposure through mutual funds and exchange traded funds.
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