Rate hikes mostly kept these markets from emerging, but shifting cycle helps EM

Global growth matters for Emerging Markets

At the start of the year, markets were pricing in three rate cuts by June and now, the likelihood of one cut by June is close to 50/50 based on market implied probabilities.  But while delayed rate cuts complicate the bull case for Emerging Markets (EM), David Hauner does point out that expectations for cuts have slid partly because of stronger economies, a positive for EM. Still, further delays in rate cuts would likely be a short-term negative for EM assets. Elections could create volatility as well. But a significant portion of EM outperformance does come around Fed cutting cycles and sentiment on China can't get much worse.  David is bullish on EM over the medium-term, he discusses why, what elections could mean, the significance of what appears to be a trough in global PMIs and the tactical opportunities in EM.

 

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